We expect the Government to release the Business Case for high speed rail soon for the upcoming federal election. The big issue is can we get the public to support it?
The HSRA submitted its business case to the Government in late December last year. The Government says it is now with Infrastructure Australia to assess it. However Tim Parker's confidence suggests they have a strong case. So it is likely that it will pass (if not already). Which means it is likely the Government will announce funding (and release the business case) for the line as an election promise.
It will then go into a period of critical assessment by economic and technical experts in the middle of an election campaign. And who knows what will happen then?
One clear problem is the business case will have to rely on a degree of speculation. The infrastructure has a lifetime of potentially a hundred years if appropriately maintained and updated. The main benefits the business case is likely to rely on will be population and economic growth in the corridor. But these will take decades to evolve and substantiate. Which means the business case will have a high degree of uncertainty which will be open to criticism - in the heat of an election campaign.
We, among others, are also concerned about the approach being adopted by the HSRA. In particular, the HSRA has adopted a dedicated high speed line with no interconnection with the existing line in the corridor. There are valid reasons for this approach, and the HSRA may have found solutions that address most of our concerns. But the decision should be debated by relevant experts before engineering work commences that commits us to this approach once and for all. And again, this will occur in an election campaign.
So what is the public to think? There will be experts questioning key aspects of the business case. This doesn't mean the investment is wrong - simply that some changes should perhaps be made. But what does the average person think if there are many issues for debate? The Government will be supporting investment (and we hope the opposition will too), but in a charged atmosphere that is inimical for considered debate.
This is a problem the Government brought on itself by taking too long to set up and staff the HSRA. But let's hope this doesn't lead to a negative situation that turns the public away from high speed rail.